Round-up of regional news July 2010

AFGHANISTAN/PAKISTAN: Clear as sunshine

A report on Pakistan’s involvement in the Afghan insurgency is not something that has journalists sitting up any more. One new report, however, has caused something of a stir. Released by the reputed Crisis States Research Centre of the London School of Economics and authored by a respected researcher, Matt Waldman, the report’s centrepiece was Waldman’s interviews with nine insurgent field commanders and one high-level Taliban intermediary.

The conclusion of the research is that the extent of influence that Pakistan’s intelligence agency, the ISI, exerts on the strategic decision-making and field operations of the Taliban and Haqqani extremist group has been severely underestimated by the Western countries who view Islamabad as a strategic ally. Insurgent commanders spoke of the ISI’s role being as clear as ‘the sun in the sky’, suggesting that some Pakistani presence in the Supreme Council of the Taliban was a regular feature, as were the command-level operational orders given to them. The reports from the ground went beyond the usual refrain, which sees Pakistan as a source of sanctuary and logistical support for the Taliban. Particularly sensational was the revelation of a visit by President Asif Ali Zardari to a secret prison where he assured Taliban prisoners that, though they had been arrested under US pressure, they would soon be released and even provided support for their operations.

Employing unusual documentation of ground-level commanders involved in the insurgency, the report breaks fresh ground. However, what remains problematic is the fact that most of the commanders ‘believed’ that the ISI had a major role in their operations, but direct knowledge was less substantive since such cooperation purportedly took place at a higher level. India, Pakistan and Afghanistan are bedevilled by warped perceptions, of course, and it is important to distinguish between belief and fact, however close to the ground the former may be. Still, the consistency of the Taliban commanders’ narratives, and the details they have provided of the command and control, and sources of financing and training, provide one of the few views from the ground up.

Reactions have been fast and furious, and along expected lines on all sides. New Delhi has zeroed in on the report as evidence of Islamabad’s collusion with the insurgents, while Islamabad has denied anything of the sort. Both countries, meanwhile, have paid less attention to the report’s final conclusion, which states that pending problems between India and Pakistan need to be resolved in order to bring any real change to Pakistan’s problematic relationship with Afghanistan’s insurgency.

PAKISTAN/AFGHANISTAN: Whose wheat?



As rice cultivators in large parts of Southasia cross their fingers for what seems to be an increasingly late monsoon, wheat cultivators in Pakistan’s Punjab province may not be as worried as farmers elsewhere. Unlike the situation in 2008, when Pakistan suffered a major flour shortage, Punjab has produced a bumper wheat crop this year. So full have provincial threshing mills been that public-sector departments are sitting on millions of tonnes of wheat surplus. Eager to move the stock, the Punjab government has asked the Centre for permission to export two million tonnes of surplus wheat to Afghanistan. 

Though Pakistan has traditionally exported food items to Afghanistan, Islamabad imposed an extensive ban during 2007-08, due to severe domestic shortages. But with the Punjab Food Department alone claiming to have a current excess of at least 2.7 million tonnes of wheat, some argue that the time is ripe to restart exports. Not everyone is convinced by this argument, though, and the naysayers could have an important point. 

In 2007, Pakistan faced a loss of some USD 304.3 million when former Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, ignoring advice from his Ministry of Food and Agriculture, agreed to the export of 300,000 tonnes of wheat. This caused a massive shortage in the country, driving wheat prices up and ultimately forcing the government to import cereals at exorbitant prices. Many fear that the resumption of exports this year could now lead to a similar crisis, and are calling instead for the construction of silos able to store the surplus for longer periods. 

Meanwhile, the food situation is Afghanistan remains dire to say the least. The combination of conflict, a drought in parts of the country from 2008 and the end of imports from neighbours have resulted in severe food shortages for years. As such, highly dependent on food aid from donors, Afghanistan could certainly do well with the two million tonnes from across the border.



BANGLADESH:(Almost) a good place to live

In a big pat on the back, Bangladesh is set to be showcased as a ‘model country’ at both the upcoming G8 Summit in Canada and at the Asia Food Security Investment Forum in the Philippines. Both events are taking place in July. And indeed, in the face of some of the more dire headlines, a look at several indicators does show that Bangladesh’s economic progress over the past decade has been laudable.

Despite having suffered numerous natural disasters and extensive political turmoil, Bangladesh succeeded in bringing down the poverty rate from 57 percent in 1990 to 40 percent in 2005. Though it is a country with one of the highest population densities in the world, Bangladesh enjoyed relative self-sufficiency in food, at least prior to the price rise of 2007-08. With annual rice production more than doubling in just three decades, the number of undernourished in Bangladesh has gone down from 36 percent to 26 percent in the same period. 

Amidst all the deserving congratulations, though, there remains massive suffering. Some 50 million Bangladeshis continue to live below the poverty line, 36 million are chronically hungry, and 40 percent of children are undernourished. Looking at the larger picture, even with the significant improvements in indicators, the food situation in Bangladesh is still classified as ‘alarming’ in the Global Hunger Index, albeit a notch down from the ‘extremely alarming’ of 1990. Moreover, considering the large and growing population and the environmentally fragile landmass, Bangladesh sorely lacks the infrastructure and mechanisms necessary to feed its people, even in the near future. Because Bangladesh started so far at the back, even the best is not yet good enough.



AFGHANISTAN:Chugga-chugga … boom-boom!



Before it was blighted by three decades of wars and counter-wars, Afghanistan was a crucial link between Asia and Europe, entertaining a steady flow of goods and travellers. Now, the country appears to be preparing to take on that role once again, this time through by rail. As per a recent agreement, neighbouring Uzbekistan, in an effort funded by the Asian Development Bank, has already begun laying 75 km of tracks in Afghanistan, connecting the border town of Hairatan with the northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif. 

The project seeks to open up Afghanistan’s agricultural, textile and minerals sectors (including, of course, the newly alleged USD 1 trillion worth of the latter) to export goods from Asia to Europe. The section of the rail link currently being built is the first phase of a larger network planned, which is eventually to include links to Tajikistan and Pakistan, as well as the first step in linking Central Asia to Iranian seaports.

With almost half of Afghanistan’s imports already passing coming south through Hairatan, the rail link is likely to yield significant economic advantages. The connection is also expected to support growth, improve the delivery of aid and undermine highway banditry helping to fund insurgents, including the Taliban.



REGION:Gaddafis’ concern



The Gaddafis do not give up. First, Libyan strongman Muammar al-Gaddafi threw everyone off kilter in September 2009, demanding independence for Kashmir at the UN General Assembly, of all places.‘We should end this conflict. It should be a Ba’athist state between India and Pakistan.’ said Gaddafi during the speech last year. 

Now, Gaddafi’s son, Saif al-Islam, has sponsored a survey on Kashmir (on both sides of the Line of Control), conducted by a British researcher named Robert W Bradnock. The results show something similar to what Gaddafi stated last year, though minus his trademark bluster. Forty-three percent of those interviewed demanded complete independence; a little over 28 percent in Jammu & Kashmir voted for India, while only 50 percent in Azad Jammu & Kashmir wanted to remain 
within Pakistan. 

Addressing questions of neutrality in the process, Braddock explained that all the surveyors were local to Srinagar, Jammu or Muzaffarabad. Newspapers in India, meanwhile, played up the fact that only two percent of those surveyed in J & K wanted to live in Pakistan. The media in Pakistan, however, blocked the report out entirely. 

The junior Gaddafi is not new to Kashmir. According to Bradnock, he has been running ‘a charity in Libya which helps [among others], Kashmiri refugees, mainly in Pakistan.’ Saif al-Islam visited refugee camps in 2001, and was said to be ‘concerned with the humanitarian nature of the crisis’. It is heartening to see that Saif al-Islam is using saner – if not less controversial – methods to achieve that than his father.



NEPAL/INDIA: Dam them all!

The plans for a 3300-megawatt hydropower project on the Kosi River, backed by a high dam, has been a controversial project. In mid-June, Kathmandu and New Delhi finally agreed on assigning a technical team to put together a Detailed Project Report (DPR), and is again proving to be an uphill task.

First discussed during the early 1940s, it was only in the 1980s that India’s Central Water Commission recommended building a 269-metre high dam. Environmentalists and activists in Nepal have strongly opposed the plan, however, pointing to matters related to seismicity, siltation and inundation of vast stretches of eastern Nepal’s valleys.

The proposed dam has also become controversial because some indigenous communities fear displacement from their ancestral lands. Enter the Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), whose anti-India stance works well in garnering local support in opposing the high dam.

Whatever the politics of the matter, experts continue to argue that neither country has the ability to address the technical, economic and social costs associated with an endeavour as large as the Kosi high dam. Nevertheless, both governments appear determined to carry out the project – so much so that today’s Kathmandu government has now provided heavy security at the project site to allow the DPR team to carry out its work.



REGION: Salma vs Sistan



The pivotal role that water will play in the world’s future wars has been highlighted regularly by political analysts and environmental activists. A look at the politics of water in Southasia only reinforces such a view. The most recent trouble revolves around the India-funded reconstruction of the Salma Dam, which is being rebuilt on the Harirud River in the Afghan district of Herat. New Delhi is pumping USD 150 million into the effort, which is scheduled to be completed by September 2011, generating some 40 MW of electricity as well as irrigating 25,000 hectares of land.

The undertaking has angered Tehran, however, as the dam will reduce the flow of the water entering Iranian territory. The Afghan media has even accused Tehran of carrying out targeted political assassinations in Herat earlier this year, as part of an effort to bring construction to a halt. The Salma Dam would restrict the Harirud’s flow into Iran’s barren inland Sistan delta, affecting its 400,000 residents whose economy strongly depends on agriculture. Pakistan, who has longstanding water-related disputes with India, has also voiced its opposition to the project.

Despite all protests, the construction of Salma continues apace. In fact, the dam was completed and began functioning in 1976, but was destroyed during the civil war. An Indian company began the reconstruction work in 1988, but was unable to complete it due as instability increased. In 2006, New Delhi once again offered financial and other assistance to rebuild the dam, an effort that is now being led WAPCOS, a consultancy under New Delhi’s Ministry of Water Resources.

While it is hoped that the project’s completion can lead to the overall development of Herat and the surrounding areas, it now looks set to serve more to escalate tensions between Afghanistan and Iran.



REGION: Neighbourly down here



Southasia is among the most volatile places in the world, according to the Global Peace Index, a yearly ranking released by the Sydney-based Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP). According to the Index, Southasia has also become more conflict ridden over the last four years, a trend mirrored in the rest of the world. Overall, the study suggests that the economic turmoil of 2008-09 might have had a role in intensifying conflict.

Among the 149 countries on the 2010 list, India ranks 128th, in terms of being a violent place, six spots below its 2009 standing. But India is in familiar company down there, with Burma at 132, Sri Lanka at 133, Pakistan at 145 and Afghanistan at 147. Bangladesh and Nepal, meanwhile, fared far better, coming in at 87 and 82, respectively. Ranked 36th, Bhutan came out the top in the region, and just narrowly missed being in the top 20 percent worldwide.

The Index, which has been published for the last four years, considers 23 factors, including the state of diplomatic relations with neighbouring countries and military expenditure. For instance, India’s slip from last year reflects its troubled relations with its neighbours, especially Pakistan, particularly as New Delhi received high scores for low military expenditure per capita and low numbers of displaced peoples, among other things. Meanwhile, India, Sri Lanka and Pakistan were also called out on levels of corruption, human-rights record and the state of the business environment.

THE MALDIVES: Sharia precedent



Sulhath Abdulla had a fleeting hope that a row he was having with a doctor would go unpunished. Last year, Abdulla had threatened the doctor after he refused to prescribe a controlled substance. But Judge Abdul Gany Mohamed had other ideas. Despite the lack of a Maldivian law to prosecute Abdulla, Judge Gany ordered him to serve four years under house arrest, citing the defendant’s actions as being prohibited under Islamic Sharia. This was the first attempt to punish, under Sharia law, a defendant already acquitted under the Maldivian penal code. The High Court justice, in no way attempting to mask the significance of his ruling, ordered the state to ‘amend the penal code in a manner that does not obstruct the giving of penalties for crimes prohibited under Islamic Sharia.’

The ruling puts further strain on both the emerging democracy in the Maldives and the liberal-minded President Mohammed Nasheed. The president, who in recent months has met with international leaders (including German Chancellor Angela Merkel) to discuss the possibility of scholars of Islam from their countries helping craft Sharia law in the Maldives, is struggling to maintain balance among his political supporters. On his right are conservatives from the Adhaalath Party at the Ministry of Islamic Affairs, gifted to that party by Nasheed for supporting his candidacy for president. On the left flank is the Maldivian Democratic Party, including Nasheed’s stalwart supporters, who continue to root for modernisation and various policy reforms.

In fact, Justice Gany’s ruling is not the first time that Sharia application has challenged the nascent Maldivian democracy. Recent provisions for flogging, sanctioned under Sharia law as a deterrent but ‘not designed to cause injury’, according to Justice Abdulla of the Criminal Court, has incensed human-rights leaders. Amnesty International, the international rights watchdog, calls the practice ‘a cruel, inhuman and degrading punishment which is banned by international human rights law’. President Nasheed and his allies clearly have a fight on their hands in trying to convert the atolls into a liberal democracy.



BHUTAN: Druk cinema


Bhutanese moviegoers and moviemakers alike continue to suffer due to an economic stranglehold on their fledgling, though beloved, industry. Despite a two-year-old prime-ministerial decree mandating a film house in each dzongkhag, or district, many citizens are still watching movies in the open, screened in paddy fields – if they are lucky. The Economic Development Policy, in an effort to curry favour with the populace, reduced the 30 percent tax on ticket sales to a 10 percent tax; yet in fact, the entire amount had previously been exempted. As a result, ticket sales have reduced for producers already experiencing financial strain.

The Motion Pictures Association of Bhutan (MPAB), which has seen its membership and popularity skyrocket in recent years, maintains that it suffers under the economic policy. Among the most pressing challenges is the lack of government recognition as an official industry. Bhutanese filmmakers thus shoulder the majority of the expenses, often through mortgaged properties and the sale of businesses, to produce films, which cost an average of about USD 40,000. Without recognition as an industry, they cannot get financing underwritten on the strength and viability of a film’s script, director and producer.

For the moment, the country’s nascent film industry certainly does not suffer from apathy, at least on the part on aspiring producers. Kinley Dorji, secretary of the MPAB, notes a 50 percent increase in applications for membership in 2009 over previous years, a trend that is likely to continue this year. But as experiences from elsewhere in Southasia have shown, increasing producers waiting to join the world of glamour does not necessarily guarantee good films.



SRI LANKA/INDIA: Lost lustre

Bollywood and politics are inseparable, both in India and across the entire region. And it was no different at the recent International Indian Film Academy awards hosted in Colombo. To begin with, the absence of both Amitabh Bachchan and Shahrukh Khan, including the former’s superstar family, put a serious damper on the event. These stars stayed away from the event due to South Indian distributors threatening to boycott the films of those who attended, due to lingering Indian Tamil anger over the Colombo government’s crushing of the 30-year conflict led by the LTTE, and the handling of the Tamils who currently remain in government camps.

Also conspicuous in his absence, though for different reasons altogether, was President Mahinda Rajapakse, a no-show despite being scheduled as the chief guest. The president kept away from the event after the Bollywood stars failed to make an appearance at a brunch that he had personally hosted. A number of Sri Lankan film stars were also missing because they felt snubbed by their Indian counterparts.

All of which means that this year’s IIFA was a fiasco. This was despite the nearly USD 4 million that Colombo had coughed up for the mega-event, hoping it would prop up Sri Lanka’s image post-conflict, both as a tourist destination and to encourage investment in the entertainment industry. The matter was further exacerbated when the Indian news channel NDTV, concurrent to the IIFA, broadcast a programme titled ‘Blood on Water’, accusing the Sri Lanka Navy of incursions into Indian waters.



BANGLADESH: Gassing up

Once a country enjoying a natural-gas surplus, Bangladesh today suffers  grave shortages, and is looking to fuels from outside the region. As things stand, the country produces 1900 million cubic feet (MCF) of gas per day, while the demand stands at 2400 MCF. To cover that 500 MCF daily shortfall, Dhaka is currently planning to import some 182.5 trillion cubic feet per year from Qatar. The two parties are preparing to finalise the details of the deal. 

Bangladesh is not simply pinning its hopes on imports from Qatar, which would constitute more of a short-term strategy. Looking to the future, Dhaka has announced that it will be building two LNG terminals, which would allow it to import and store large amounts of gas, as well as coal-powered power plants. Indeed, the government has already begun buying land in Chittagong and Moheshkali, the latter an island off the coast of Cox’s Bazar, for this purpose. Serious as Dhaka sounds about getting adequate flows of LNG into the country, experts maintain that larger infrastructural investments, including an LNG terminal in the Bay of Bengal, will eventually be necessary.

Before Bangladesh began looking outside the region, the country had been part of a discussion on the viability of a gas pipeline, running through its territory, from Burma to India. While the pipeline would have been both short and economically feasible, it fell through as Dhaka, raising the ante, attempted to negotiate the trade imbalance with India, the opening-up of roads to Nepal, and accessing hydropower from Bhutan as part of the deal. More importantly, the three capitals also continued to argue over maritime boundaries in the Bay of Bengal, making cooperation in other areas difficult until the issue is resolved.